FPL
GW4 Captain Picks: Demon Is Backing Joao Pedro
11 September 2026
Demon is backing Joao Pedro as captain this week. Chelsea are at home to Hull, he is on the end of the chances, and Palmer being 0.04 behind does not make it a toss-up.
- Joao Pedro, 6.76. Hull at the Bridge, 90 minutes, £7.7m.
- Palmer is 6.72 in the same game. This week's xG is 0.91 for Pedro and 0.59 for Palmer.
- Hull have kept three clean sheets. Beat United, beat Coventry, drew with Villa. Not a free hit.
- Haaland is fifth. £15.5m, away at United. The best three weeks on this list, the worst fixture.
Following on from the GW3 captain piece. Same five names in every table. Pedro's row is the red one.
The five
| Player | Fixture | xPts | Minutes | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Joao Pedro | Hull (H) | 6.76 | 90 | £7.7m |
| Palmer | Hull (H) | 6.72 | 87 | £9.7m |
| Rogers | Hull (H) | 5.97 | 86 | £7.6m |
 Isak | Fulham (H) | 5.65 | 81 | £9.1m |
 Haaland | Man Utd (A) | 5.43 | 90 | £15.5m |
Three of the five play Hull. The table cannot separate them on the fixture. Pedro is top by a nose, and the nose is the shots.
Who has been getting the chances
| Player | Goals | xG | xA | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland | 3 | 2.46 | 0.50 | 1 |
| Isak | 3 | 2.29 | 0.06 | 2 |
| Joao Pedro | 2 | 1.88 | 0.15 | 3 |
| Rogers | 2 | 1.18 | 1.14 | 4 |
| Palmer | 2 | 1.05 | 0.36 | 5 |
Haaland leads the season shots, 2.46 xG, every minute, three goals. Isak is next on 2.29. Pedro is third on 1.88: scored at Fulham, scored at home to Brighton, then 0.02 xG at the Emirates. Palmer is last of the five on 1.05. Rogers has the assists, 1.14 xA, and not the shots. If the armband was 'who has been hottest', it would be Haaland. Saturday is not that question.
Chelsea against Hull
Chelsea have created 5.66 xG and kept nothing. Hull have created 2.37 and not conceded in three games. City are still the hottest attack of the clubs in this five, 6.84 xG. Liverpool are 5.44. You are not captaining Pedro because Hull are open. You are captaining him because Chelsea make the chances and he is the one finishing them, against a side that has been horrible to score on.
Saturday's chances
| Player | Fixture | xG | xA | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joao Pedro | Hull (H) | 0.91 | 0.32 | 6.76 |
| Isak | Fulham (H) | 0.66 | 0.20 | 5.65 |
| Haaland | Man Utd (A) | 0.64 | 0.16 | 5.43 |
| Palmer | Hull (H) | 0.59 | 0.34 | 6.72 |
| Rogers | Hull (H) | 0.48 | 0.33 | 5.97 |
0.91 is the number. Nobody else in the five is near it. Isak at home to Fulham, who have already conceded seven, is the next best chance on 0.66, and Demon only has him for 81 minutes. Haaland's 0.64 is a derby at Old Trafford. Palmer's 0.59 is the same XI as Pedro, on the ball, not on the end of it. Rogers is 0.48 with the pass.
Add it up
| Player | Shots | Team | Saturday | xPts | Sum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joao Pedro | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Haaland | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| Isak | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| Palmer | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| Rogers | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
Pedro is 7. He is only third for the season and his team is second, and he still wins because Saturday is his and the xPts are his. Haaland is 10: first for shots, first for City's attack, fifth once Old Trafford is in the number. Isak is 11. Palmer is 13. The 6.72 sits next to 6.76 and then the shots put him last of the Chelsea three.
Demon's captainJoao Pedro
Pedro. Hull at the Bridge. Palmer only if he is the Chelsea forward you have and you are not moving. Haaland can wait until he is not walking into a derby.
The GW5 captain piece is next.
