FPL
Raya Saves a Penalty, Gabriel Delivers: Arsenal's Defence Pays Off
13 September 2026
Raya hauled. Gabriel delivered. We backed Arsenal's defence to do a job at Sunderland and it did more than that: a saved penalty, a clean sheet and a 14-point goalkeeper haul. This is the one where the model cooked. In this guide: the penalty save that swung the afternoon, the starting XI's expected v actual points, and whether Brighton away in GW5 is still a green light for the back line.
- Raya: 14 points. Saved a penalty, kept a clean sheet, picked up three bonus. Nailed on.
- Gabriel: 9 points. Our top defensive pick delivered again.
- Arsenal didn't lead until the 58th minute and only sealed it with a stoppage-time penalty.
- Bruno G. came off the bench for the injured Timber and scored inside thirteen minutes. Absolute cameo.
- Next: Arsenal go to Brighton, Sunderland host Man City. Check the numbers before you touch the defence.
Raya saves the pen. Game over before it starts.
Goalless, past the hour, and Sunderland get a penalty in the 56th minute. Enzo Le Fée steps up. Raya saves it. FotMob gave him a 9.0 rating and Player of the Match, the top score of any player across the whole Saturday slate. Two minutes later, Bruno G. puts Arsenal ahead. That is how you flip a nervy away day into a laugher.
That save is the entire story of Raya's fourteen points. Two saves, a clean sheet, three bonus, and a stat line that did the rest of the defence's job for them. We had him marked as the top keeper pick for this fixture at 4.76 expected points. He nearly tripled it.
Arsenal's starting XI: expected points v actual points
| Player | xPts | Points | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raya | 4.76 | 14 | +9.2 |
| Timber | 0 | 1 | +1 |
| White, top three expected points pick | 5.00 | 1 | -4 |
| Calafiori, top three expected points pick | 4.80 | 6 | +1.2 |
| Gabriel, top three expected points pick | 5.04 | 9 | +4 |
| Rice | 3.76 | 6 | +2.2 |
| Lewis-Skelly | 3.18 | 1 | -2.2 |
| Zubimendi | 0.71 | 1 | +0.3 |
| Saka | 4.79 | 8 | +3.2 |
| Ødegaard | 4.27 | 3 | -1.3 |
| Havertz | 4.26 | 1 | -3.3 |
Top three xPts picks, including ties. xPts = expected points; +/- = actual minus expected. Green: 1.5+ above. Red: 1.5+ below. Otherwise neutral.
Sunderland's starting XI: expected points v actual points
| Player | xPts | Points | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roefs, top three expected points pick | 3.01 | 2 | -1 |
| Mukiele | 2.93 | 0 | -2.9 |
| Danso | 0.97 | 1 | 0 |
| Reinildo | 2.83 | -2 | -4.8 |
| Ballard | 2.99 | 0 | -3 |
| Xhaka, top three expected points pick | 3.11 | 3 | -0.1 |
| Le Fée, top three expected points pick | 3.14 | 0 | -3.1 |
| Sadiki | 2.57 | 2 | -0.6 |
| N.Angulo | 2.69 | 2 | -0.7 |
| Meunier | 2.85 | 2 | -0.8 |
| Brobbey | 2.98 | 1 | -2 |
Top three xPts picks, including ties. xPts = expected points; +/- = actual minus expected. Green: 1.5+ above. Red: 1.5+ below. Otherwise neutral.
Reinildo finished on minus two after a second yellow in stoppage time, and the rest of Sunderland's defence never got close to their expected totals. Nothing to see here for their owners; a missed penalty and a red card will do that to a home side's numbers. Move on.
Sunderland had the better chances. Arsenal had the better keeper.
Sunderland out-shot Arsenal at home and missed three big chances, penalty included. Arsenal's 58% possession did nothing to control the box either: fewer touches in the box than the home side. This was there to be drawn or even lost, and one save plus one moment of quality in stoppage time turned it into a routine 2-0. Don't confuse the scoreline with the performance.
Closer than the scoreline, and closer than the clean sheet suggests
Strip out the missed penalty and Sunderland's threat was basically all set-pieces: 0.59 of their 0.85 non-penalty xG from dead balls, just 0.26 from open play. Arsenal's back line was barely opened up in a straight line all game. That's the reassuring read for the clean-sheet owners, and a reason not to fade Gabriel or Calafiori off one nervy scoreline.
Bruno G.: 0.27 expected points, one goal, cameo of the week
Timber went off injured at half-time. Bruno G. came on and scored in the 58th minute, assisted by Rice. Our model had him at 0.27 expected points before kick-off — a squad role, not a starting one. This is the risk with an impact sub: the numbers cannot price a half-time gamble, and this one landed perfectly.
Don't chase this one from the sofa. A cameo goal off the bench is a reason to watch team news before Brighton, not a reason to burn a transfer on a player who wasn't even nailed to start this game. Ødegaard's blank tells you more: 4.27 expected points, three actual, all the touches and none of the end product. Stayed quiet, ball didn't drop for him this week.
Brighton away: what GW5 looks like for both defences
| Player | Price | Expected points | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saka | £9.5m | 4.66 | Brighton (A) |
| Gabriel | £8.0m | 4.37 | Brighton (A) |
| Calafiori | £5.8m | 4.16 | Brighton (A) |
| Ødegaard | £6.7m | 4.13 | Brighton (A) |
| Raya | £6.0m | 4.09 | Brighton (A) |
| Rice | £7.4m | 3.63 | Brighton (A) |
| Konsa | £4.5m | 1.26 | Brighton (A) |
The model still backs this Arsenal defence away at Brighton — Gabriel, Calafiori and Raya all sit near the top of the GW5 defensive projections. Konsa's price makes him worth a punt if Timber's fitness is still a doubt; check team news before the deadline rather than assuming the same back four walks back in. Sunderland now host the champions. Their defenders are a fixture to avoid regardless of anything you saw this week.
Arsenal owners have the better end of this again. The penalty save and the late goal made it look tidy; the underlying picture, one clean sheet against a set-piece-reliant side, backs holding rather than sweating a nervy hour on the road.
