FPL
Ten Men, One Contentious Goal: City Win the Derby Anyway
15 September 2026
Foden was gone by the 23rd minute for kicking out at Bruno, except watch it back and Bruno fouled him and caught him with a boot on the floor first. Foden reacted, the ref only saw the second bit, and City still went on to win the derby with ten men for over an hour. If you had Bruno or Mbeumo armed over Haaland, that one hurt.
- Haaland finished with 9 points off one goal, three bonus and a clean sheet City barely earned. That's his ninth goal in this fixture now, more than anyone has ever scored in a Manchester derby.
- Gvardiol got the assist for the winner, kept a clean sheet, picked up three bonus and finished on 11. The model only had him down for 3.70.
- Foden's red card in the 23rd minute meant City played the last 67 minutes a man down and still walked off with all three points. Roy Keane and Micah Richards both said on air that Bruno was the one who should have gone.
- Bruno, Mbeumo, Rashford and Cunha all finished on exactly two points. Mbeumo had the best chance of the lot in stoppage time and didn't take it.
- City host Sunderland next, Utd go to Fulham. One of those two is a far kinder fixture than the other.
The goal that decided it
Gvardiol whipped a cross in, it took a deflection off Patrick Dorgu's own boot, ran through Enzo Fernández without him getting a touch on it, and fell to Haaland, who turned it in on 60 minutes. The linesman had Haaland himself offside. VAR looked at it for three minutes and decided he wasn't. Goal stands, 1-0, and that's the game.
It got worse for United afterwards, too. The body that oversees Premier League officiating later admitted the goal should have been checked more carefully — Fernández was in an offside position as the ball ran through to Haaland, and even without a touch, that's meant to trigger a pitchside review of whether he was interfering with play. It didn't happen. Nobody's rescinding the result over it. The goal stood, City won, and Haaland owners are three points and a bonus haul better off for a decision that by the letter of the rule probably shouldn't have gone their way.
Man City's starting XI: expected points v actual points
| Player | xPts | Points | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donnarumma | 3.31 | 7 | +3.7 |
| Nunes | 0.45 | 9 | +8.6 |
| Guéhi, top three expected points pick | 3.91 | 6 | +2.1 |
| Rúben Dias | 3.35 | 6 | +2.7 |
| Gvardiol | 3.70 | 11 | +7.3 |
| Anderson | 3.19 | 5 | +1.8 |
| Foden | 3.58 | -2 | -5.6 |
| Cherki | 3.78 | 1 | -2.8 |
| Enzo Fernández | 1.67 | 2 | +0.3 |
| Semenyo, top three expected points pick | 4.23 | 3 | -1.2 |
| Haaland, top three expected points pick | 5.43 | 9 | +3.6 |
Top three xPts picks, including ties. xPts = expected points; +/- = actual minus expected. Green: 1.5+ above. Red: 1.5+ below. Otherwise neutral.
Man Utd's starting XI: expected points v actual points
| Player | xPts | Points | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lammens | 3.06 | 2 | -1.1 |
| Dalot | 2.40 | 2 | -0.4 |
| Maguire | 2.88 | 1 | -1.9 |
| Martínez | 2.58 | 2 | -0.6 |
| Dorgu | 1.13 | 4 | +2.9 |
| Tielemans | 3.04 | 2 | -1 |
| Mainoo | 2.93 | 4 | +1.1 |
| Mbeumo, top three expected points pick | 4.27 | 2 | -2.3 |
| Bruno Fernandes, top three expected points pick | 5.03 | 2 | -3 |
| Rashford | 3.32 | 2 | -1.3 |
| Cunha, top three expected points pick | 3.69 | 2 | -1.7 |
Top three xPts picks, including ties. xPts = expected points; +/- = actual minus expected. Green: 1.5+ above. Red: 1.5+ below. Otherwise neutral.
What actually bugs me watching this back is United had four attackers on the pitch and a man advantage for over an hour, and every single one of them finished on two points. Cunha in particular was everywhere without ever really threatening. When your whole front line blanks together with a spare man on the pitch, that's not variance, that's a finishing problem, and City being down to ten men again next time won't fix it on its own.
The stats United actually won
Sixteen shots to six. Nearly double the touches in the box. More of the ball for the whole match, plus an extra man for over an hour, and City's own expected goals still edged it, 1.10 to 1.00. So don't let the red card fool you into thinking United were just unlucky — they had the volume, they didn't have the end product, and the numbers back that up as much as the scoreline does.
Mbeumo's miss
Fifth minute of stoppage time, Bruno slides one through, Mbeumo is clean through on goal for what should have been the equaliser, and Donnarumma says no. A proper save, on the one night United needed something to drop for them. His 0.49 expected goals on the day was the best of anyone in a United shirt other than Bruno, so it's not that the chances weren't there. He just didn't get the one that mattered.
I wouldn't read much into one blank in a game his side dominated without scoring. The quality of the chance was there, the finish wasn't, and Donnarumma made sure of it. See how he does at Fulham before making any call on him.
GW5: Sunderland at home for City, Fulham away for Utd
| Player | Price | Expected points | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland | £15.5m | 6.55 | Sunderland (H) |
| Bruno Fernandes | £12.0m | 5.71 | Fulham (A) |
| Semenyo | £8.4m | 5.17 | Sunderland (H) |
| Gvardiol | £5.6m | 5.24 | Sunderland (H) |
| Mbeumo | £7.9m | 4.81 | Fulham (A) |
| Cherki | £7.8m | 4.54 | Sunderland (H) |
| Donnarumma | £5.5m | 4.60 | Sunderland (H) |
| Guéhi | £6.0m | 5.51 | Sunderland (H) |
One name missing from that list: Foden. His red card carries a three-match ban that rules him out of Sunderland at home, the Carabao Cup tie before it, and City's trip to Liverpool after it, so leave him out of your GW5 XI whatever the model would otherwise say about the fixture. Everyone else in that City XI still gets a very easy home game, and Haaland's 6.55 is the best number of anyone from either squad this week. United's trip to Fulham is a step up in difficulty but Bruno and Mbeumo still sit near the top of the board for it — they were unlucky here, not bad, and now they get a fixture to put it right.
