FPL
Wildcarded DCL for Wissa? Calvert-Lewin Made You Regret It
15 September 2026
A lot of people wildcarded Calvert-Lewin out for Wissa this week, and it backfired badly. DCL ran Newcastle's defence ragged at Elland Road while Wissa barely got a sniff at the other end, and Leeds are now third in the table off the back of it. Doesn't mean Wissa's finished, though, so stick with me on this one.
- Bogle scored, kept a clean sheet and picked up three bonus for 15 points, even though the goal itself came off his own leg.
- Calvert-Lewin was man of the match with a goal and an assist for 10 points. If you sold him for Wissa this week, that one stings.
- Miley's own goal and Bogle's strike came within two minutes of each other either side of the half-hour mark, and Calvert-Lewin added a third just before the break.
- Wissa played the full 90 minutes and came away with two points. Newcastle's whole attack went quiet without the injured Elanga.
- Leeds host Crystal Palace next, Newcastle host Hull, and one of those two fixtures is a lot friendlier than people think.
The DCL for Wissa swap that went wrong
Calvert-Lewin: a goal, an assist, 84 minutes, man of the match. Wissa: 90 minutes, no goal involvement, two points. If the plan was cutting Calvert-Lewin loose for Newcastle's new number nine, this week the numbers didn't just disagree with you, they went the other way entirely. Wissa's own expected goals on the day, 0.396, were actually decent, so it's not that he had no service. He just didn't convert, and Leeds didn't let him find much room to try again.
He's still getting the underlying chances, so I wouldn't write him off over one blank. The gap this week came down to Calvert-Lewin being directly involved in three of Leeds' four goals, a header that Bogle turned in and a finish of his own before half-time. That's the difference on the day, not a verdict on either striker for the rest of the season.
Leeds' starting XI: expected points v actual points
| Player | xPts | Points | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trafford | 3.88 | 3 | -0.9 |
| Justin, top three expected points pick | 3.97 | 2 | -2 |
| Elvedi | 2.43 | 2 | -0.4 |
| Muharemović | 3.87 | 7 | +3.1 |
| Bogle | 3.69 | 15 | +11.3 |
| Stach, top three expected points pick | 4.34 | 3 | -1.3 |
| Ampadu | 3.36 | 7 | +3.6 |
| Tanaka | 1.79 | 6 | +4.2 |
| Gudmundsson | 1.09 | 6 | +4.9 |
| Calvert-Lewin, top three expected points pick | 4.42 | 10 | +5.6 |
| Okafor | 2.96 | 9 | +6 |
Top three xPts picks, including ties. xPts = expected points; +/- = actual minus expected. Green: 1.5+ above. Red: 1.5+ below. Otherwise neutral.
Newcastle's starting XI: expected points v actual points
| Player | xPts | Points | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| Horníček | 3.49 | 1 | -2.5 |
| Dedić | 3.12 | 0 | -3.1 |
| Thiaw | 3.24 | 2 | -1.2 |
| Botman | 3.24 | 2 | -1.2 |
| Hall, top three expected points pick | 3.76 | 0 | -3.8 |
| Miley | 2.86 | 0 | -2.9 |
| N.Gonzalez | 2.14 | 1 | -1.1 |
| J.Murphy | 0.54 | 0 | -0.5 |
| Fernandez-Pardo | 0.49 | 1 | +0.5 |
| Barnes, top three expected points pick | 3.91 | 2 | -1.9 |
| Wissa, top three expected points pick | 4.10 | 2 | -2.1 |
Top three xPts picks, including ties. xPts = expected points; +/- = actual minus expected. Green: 1.5+ above. Red: 1.5+ below. Otherwise neutral.
Calvert-Lewin rose for James Justin's cross and, for a moment, thought he had his eighth career goal against Newcastle with a bullet header. Replays showed the final touch actually came off Bogle on the way in, so the goal went down as Bogle's and the assist as Calvert-Lewin's. Tanaka's deflected shot had already forced Miley into the own goal a couple of minutes earlier, and Okafor added a fourth in the second half with a weak-foot volley off an Ampadu throw-in.
Leeds won the underlying numbers too
Even split on possession, but Leeds more than doubled Newcastle on both expected goals and shots. This wasn't a scoreline flattered by a couple of deflections landing kindly, it was backed up by 30 touches in the box to 20 and more than double the shot count. Leeds are third now, their best position at this stage of a season since 2000/01, and the performance matched it.
GW5: Crystal Palace at home for Leeds, Hull at home for Newcastle
| Player | Price | Expected points | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wissa | £6.2m | 5.37 | Hull (H) |
| Barnes | £6.0m | 5.00 | Hull (H) |
| Hall | £5.2m | 5.01 | Hull (H) |
| Calvert-Lewin | £6.0m | 4.48 | Crystal Palace (H) |
| Justin | £4.5m | 4.31 | Crystal Palace (H) |
| Thiaw | £5.0m | 4.40 | Hull (H) |
| Muharemović | £5.0m | 4.21 | Crystal Palace (H) |
| Trafford | £5.0m | 4.21 | Crystal Palace (H) |
| Bogle | £4.5m | 4.02 | Crystal Palace (H) |
Here's the bit worth sitting on: Wissa's own GW5 projection jumps to 5.37, comfortably the best number of anyone from either squad this week, at home to a Hull side that's conceded only two goals all season but sits 19th in the league on expected goals against. Third in the table on results, bottom quartile on the numbers that usually catch up with a team eventually. That's exactly the kind of fixture where an unlucky striker finally gets paid. Calvert-Lewin, meanwhile, gets Crystal Palace at home and stays a very tasty hold in his own right. I wouldn't give up on either off this one game.
