Belgium are through, somehow. This was a wild knockout game: Senegal were 2-0 up late, looked the sharper side for long spells, and still ended up losing 3-2 after extra time.
Habib Diarra and Ismaila Sarr had Senegal in control before Belgium dragged themselves back from the edge. Romelu Lukaku scored on 86 minutes, Youri Tielemans equalised three minutes later, then Tielemans won it from the spot deep into extra time after VAR awarded Belgium a late penalty.
For fantasy, this is not a simple 'Belgium looked brilliant' story. They advanced, which matters, but the match stats were messy. Senegal created the better chances, Belgium conceded twice, and the clean-sheet/shield route failed. The attacking returns were the value.
Belgium 3-2 Senegal AET
- Goals: Romelu Lukaku and Youri Tielemans x2 for Belgium
- Senegal goals: Habib Diarra and Ismaila Sarr
- Assists: Thomas Meunier and Leandro Trossard for Belgium; Moussa Niakhate for Senegal
- Belgium were 2-0 down until the 86th minute
- Tielemans finished with a huge fantasy haul after two goals, including the extra-time penalty
- Belgium are through and will face USA or Bosnia and Herzegovina in R16
- Senegal are out, so Sarr, Diarra, Mane, Jackson and the Senegal defence should leave fantasy plans
Team Stats
That xG split is the warning sign. Belgium had more of the ball and more shots, but Senegal had the better chances. Belgium's 62% advance call landed, but the 50% shield read did not. If you owned Belgium defenders for this tie, the late comeback helped the team result, not the defensive return.
Player Stats
| Player | Team | Pos | Output | Match stats | Fantasy verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youri Tielemans | Belgium | MID | 2 goals | Equaliser plus extra-time penalty; 18 fantasy points in R32 | Massive one-game haul. Great if you owned him, but do not chase the points blindly before the R16 opponent is confirmed. |
| Romelu Lukaku | Belgium | FWD | Goal | 86th-minute lifeline; now 22 tournament points | Still the direct Belgium goal route. More interesting than he looked for most of the match. |
| Leandro Trossard | Belgium | MID | Assist | Assisted Tielemans and sits on 29 tournament points | Probably the best Belgium fantasy profile so far because he keeps returning. |
| Thomas Meunier | Belgium | DEF | Assist | Set up Lukaku's late goal | Useful return, but two goals conceded kills the clean-sheet case. |
| Kevin De Bruyne | Belgium | MID | Blank | Quiet fantasy output despite Belgium surviving | Still a quality footballer, but his fantasy route is not matching the name value right now. |
| Ismaila Sarr | Senegal | FWD | Goal | Put Senegal 2-0 up | Brilliant knockout performance, but Senegal are eliminated. |
| Habib Diarra | Senegal | MID | Goal | Opened the scoring | Great real-football display, no R16 route now. |
| Moussa Niakhate | Senegal | DEF | Assist | Set up Sarr | Return landed, but the tournament is over. |
Demon Notes
- Belgium advanced, but this was not a comfortable fantasy signal. They needed late chaos and extra time to survive.
- Tielemans was the monster outcome. Two goals from midfield is a dream return, but the penalty makes it a spike rather than a guaranteed R16 role change.
- Lukaku keeps himself alive. He may not always look clean, but he is still the Belgium player most likely to turn one chance into a fantasy return.
- Trossard is the most interesting Belgium attacker for consistency. He now has returns across the tournament and assisted again here.
- De Bruyne is difficult. The name is huge, but the fantasy points are not following strongly enough yet.
- Do not buy Belgium defenders just because they progressed. Senegal produced enough danger to make the defensive route feel shaky.
- Senegal players are done. Sarr and Diarra were excellent, but eliminated players should not sit in R16 squads.
What It Means For R16
Belgium's R16 opponent is not locked yet. They will face the winner of USA v Bosnia and Herzegovina, so the R16 projections will stay TBC until that fixture is confirmed.
That matters for fantasy. Belgium players are through, but the proper xPts, advance percentage and shield percentage will wait for a one-opponent fixture. Once USA or Bosnia are confirmed, Belgium's attackers can be judged properly in the R16 table.
My lean for now: keep an eye on Trossard, Lukaku and Tielemans, but do not rush the defence. If Belgium get USA, the game could be open and transition-heavy. If they get Bosnia, Belgium may have more control, but the market data still needs to settle before the captain and shield calls are trusted.